Exclusively online students working toward a bachelor’s degree at for-profit institutions were 11.9 (+) percentage points less likely to complete their degree compared to exclusively online students at other types of institutions.
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The advantages of online degree programs, particularly for students whose life circumstances prevent them from attending in-person programs, have led to a notable increase in online enrollment. Nationally, the share of undergraduates enrolled in exclusively online degree programs increased from 6.3% in 2012 to 23.4% in 2020.
But what about the results of those enrollments? How do students who take exclusively online courses fare in terms of degree completion compared to their peers who take at least some in-person classes?
A new study suggests that being enrolled exclusively in online degree programs is associated with a significantly lower likelihood of completing a bachelor’s degree. What’s more, that disadvantage is greater for students in private, for-profit online programs.
The results are reported in The role and influence of exclusively online degree programs in higher educationan article by Justin C. Ortagus (University of Florida), Rodney Hughes (West Virginia University), and Hope Allchin (University of Florida), and recently accepted for publication in the American Educational Research Journal.
To conduct the study, researchers relied on student-level data from the 2012-2017 Early Postsecondary Student Longitudinal Study (BPS). This allowed them to track 22,500 students who first enrolled in postsecondary institutions in the 2011-2012 academic year and who were followed in their first, third, and sixth years after starting college.
To determine whether differences in degree completion could be explained by differences among students pursuing pre-college education rather than by students’ enrollment patterns, the authors used a methodology that allowed them to compare students who were similar in all other respects except their enrollment status, to ensure equal comparisons. This strategy was important given the many differences between students who study exclusively online compared to students who enroll in at least some in-person courses.
Furthermore, because we know that the types of students who enroll exclusively in online programs differ on several other characteristics, the authors attempted to account for these academic and demographic differences by using a statistical technique designed to isolate the impact of enrollment in online degree programs.
Marked differences in completion rates
Overall, the results showed that students enrolled exclusively online were 8.3 percentage points less likely to complete a bachelor’s degree compared to students who attended classes in person or who enrolled in a combination of online and in-person classes.
In fact, the overall difference in bachelor’s degree completion rates between students who were not enrolled exclusively in online programs (43.1%) and those who were (18.2%) was much larger, but that gap narrows when, as described above, the authors compare only students with the same background characteristics.
Differences in completion rates remained for different categories of students. For example:
- Black students who enrolled exclusively online were 8.6 percentage points less likely to complete a bachelor’s degree than Black students who did not.
- White students in exclusively online degree programs were 8.1 percentage points less likely to earn a bachelor’s degree than their peers who were not enrolled exclusively online.
- The difference in bachelor’s degree completion was not statistically significant for Hispanic students, but Hispanics who enrolled exclusively online were 8.7 percentage points less likely to complete any degree (associate or bachelor’s degree) compared to Hispanic students who did not enroll exclusively online.
- Low-income students who enrolled exclusively online were 8.9 percentage points less likely to complete a bachelor’s degree compared to their low-income peers who did not enroll exclusively online.
- Online-only students with military service were 11.4 percentage points less likely to earn their bachelor’s degree compared to their military-served peers not enrolled in online-only programs.
- Financially independent students enrolled exclusively online were 5.5 percentage points less likely to complete any degree (associate or bachelor’s degree) compared to independent students who were not enrolled exclusively online.
The type of institution also matters
The authors also analyzed the impact of institution type on degree completion outcomes for exclusively online students.
Students who study exclusively online for a bachelor’s degree at for-profit institutions were 11.9 percentage points less likely to complete their degree compared to students who study exclusively online at other types of institutions. That finding is particularly important because more than half of students who attend college exclusively online do so at for-profit schools.
For students working toward an associate degree or higher, exclusively online students at four-year for-profit institutions were 3.5 percentage points less likely to earn an associate degree compared to students in online programs at other types of colleges.
Improving the results of exclusive online programs
Given these results, what can be done to improve the odds that online students will complete their degrees? One option is for students in an online program to enroll in at least some in-person classes, if possible. Research has confirmed the benefits of giving students the opportunity to interact in person with faculty and peers. For example, the success of hybrid instruction, in which online material is supplemented by in-person discussion and problem-solving, illustrates this principle.
The fact is, however, that some students simply won’t be able to enroll in any in-person courses, leaving them with a Hobbesian choice: enroll in an online-only program or not go to college at all. For that audience, colleges have a special obligation to provide ample opportunities for faculty engagement and comprehensive support services that can help prevent students from simply being left to their own devices.
Finally, the study’s findings raise another warning: Be wary of online programs from for-profit institutions. In numerous analyses, these programs have yielded relatively poor results for all types of students.
Although advocates for for-profit colleges often claim that their completion rates are low because their students have pre-college characteristics that make them less likely to graduate in the first place, the authors of the new study disagree.
As lead author Justin Ortagus told me, “Some students may not be able to enroll in in-person courses due to work or family obligations, and online-only degree programs may be their only option. In those cases, we recommend a public or selective four-year institution and would be highly skeptical if a for-profit four-year institution came knocking on your door.”
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